OTTAWA: Canada’s population growth is increasingly being driven by international migration as the country’s natural increase narrows toward zero, a shift highlighted by recent federal analysis and national demographic data. Natural increase measures the difference between births and deaths, and Statistics Canada has reported periods when deaths outnumbered births, meaning population growth depended entirely on migration. The trend is reshaping how Ottawa measures population change as immigration policies are adjusted alongside demographic aging.
Statistics Canada said international migration accounted for all population growth in the first quarter of 2025 because natural increase was negative at minus 5,628, with more deaths than births. The agency said natural increase has been negative in every first quarter since 2022, a pattern it linked to an aging population, a decreasing fertility rate, and the higher number of deaths that typically occur during winter months. The data underscore how seasonal mortality and longer-run demographic changes can combine to erase growth from births.
Dan Hiebert, a professor at the University of British Columbia who studies migration, said Canada is approaching a point where natural increase could reach zero, with population gains becoming fully immigration-related. Hiebert put the timing around 2029 or 2030. Federal reporting shows the shift is already advanced: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said international migration accounted for 97.3% of Canada’s population growth over the period covered by its 2025 annual report, while natural increase was estimated at 19,738.
Federal outlook on growth
A report released Feb. 26, 2026 by the Parliamentary Budget Officer projected Canada’s total population will remain flat in 2026, describing it as a second straight year of zero growth under its baseline outlook tied to federal immigration settings. The budget watchdog said the projected pause reflects a continued decline in the non-permanent resident population. It forecast population growth would pick up only modestly to 0.3% in 2027 and then stabilize around 0.8% annually over the medium term, below the pre-2015 average cited in its analysis.
Ottawa’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan aims to stabilize permanent resident admissions while reducing new temporary resident arrivals, according to federal program descriptions. The government has also outlined a goal to bring the share of non-permanent residents in Canada’s population to below 5% by the end of 2027, as part of measures it says are intended to restore balance and control to the immigration system. The levels plan framework is accompanied by other steps affecting the inflow and stock of temporary residents.
Natural increase near the margin
While annual national totals can still show births exceeding deaths, the frequency of periods with negative natural increase has increased, particularly in winter quarters. Statistics Canada has pointed to population aging and lower fertility as key drivers reducing the contribution of births to overall growth. The agency’s quarterly estimates and component breakdowns have increasingly highlighted migratory increase as the dominant contributor to headline population changes, even as policy adjustments shift the pace and composition of inflows.
The federal government has also cited Statistics Canada projections indicating immigration is expected to drive 100% of Canada’s population growth by 2032 as society continues to age. Together, recent population estimates, federal reporting on the components of growth, and the latest budget watchdog projections depict a country where migration has become the central variable in near-term population change as natural increase approaches the break-even line. – By Content Syndication Services.